“INFLATION HAS MADE ME SO POOR, I CAN’T EVEN AFFORD TO PAY ATTENTION” (Anonymous) …But the Fed’s sure been paying attention to inflation. It’s been called unwanted, unwelcome and uncomfortable – but a little inflation is a not a bad thing, according to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who has a target range of 1 – 2% inflation. So just like Goldilocks, not too much and not too little is just what the Fed is looking to see. And last Friday we all saw the latest read on inflation, which showed that the items and services we typically buy as consumers cost us 2.8% more than they did a year ago. So the rate of inflation on the consumer level is up 2.8%, which is a bit higher than the Fed ideally wants. Bond prices and home loan rates bumped around a little in response to the news, but rates ended up only slightly worse for the week overall.

So what’s the big deal with that? 2.8% sounds pretty close to 2.0%, so does it really matter? The answer is a big YES, it sure does matter. The Fed is not only watching over the economy today, but for many years and generations down the road. And what may appear to be a modest amount of inflation above the Fed’s target range could amount to a very large difference in the lives of tomorrow’s adults.

Here is an example – spending $30,000 today on something like a car would surely cost more in the future because of inflation. Just 2% inflation each year would make that $30,000 car cost $54,000 thirty years from now. But if inflation were 4%, the car would cost nearly $100,000. And at 6% inflation, a car that cost $30,000 today would cost about $170,000 in three decades! Of course, cars are not the only thing that would increase in price – almost everything would. So the Fed is trying to guard against too much inflation by hiking rates to slow the economy. This way, the value of money and quality of life for our future generations will be better preserved.

WHAT IF RIGHT NOW, AS YOU READ THESE WORDS, THE POWER SNAPPED OFF…AND STAYED OFF FOR A WEEK. WOULD YOU AND YOUR FAMILY BE PREPARED? AND THE POWER GOING OFF IS A LOW-LEVEL EMERGENCY COMPARED TO MANY THAT HAVE HAPPENED IN THE U.S. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS. EMERGENCIES ARE NEVER EXPECTED…BUT YOU CAN BE PREPARED. DON’T MISS THIS WEEK’S IMPORTANT MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Forecast for the Week

This week will be full of action and information…including a look at the housing market, with Building Permits and Housing Starts – as well as a read on inflation in the wholesale side of the economy, via the Producer Price Index. But all the reports will pale in comparison to the big enchilada, the highly anticipated Fed Rate Decision and Policy Statement due to be delivered on Wednesday. The last time the Fed got together in August, they made a decision to pause in their two-plus year rate hike cycle…a decision which was not unanimous. And since the last meeting, individual Fed members have been on the road discussing their views on inflation and the economy, some saying that inflation is still outside the range desired by the Fed. So what might the Fed do on Wednesday, and how will it impact you?

Well, let’s take a look. Most expect that the Fed will retain its “paused” status, in order to let the effects of the past 17 hikes fully take effect in the economy, slow it down, and reduce the risk of inflation. Just like a parent gives their sick child medicine, they have to exercise patience and wait for the medicine to take effect, rather than immediately expecting the child to become well. So if they do indeed decide to stay in the pause position, many will breathe a sigh of relief, knowing that their home equity line of credit and other short term debts will not increase further in rate. What will be most interesting to dissect will be the tone and wording of the Policy Statement, and to discover if the vote is again not unanimous. The flavor of the Statement alone can move the markets very quickly, and this meeting is under especially high scrutiny. If more Fed members disagree with the vote to pause, due to their concerns about inflation in the economy – this could cause Bond prices and home loan rates to worsen in a hurry.

Bottom line – the coming week’s action might just mean that home loan rates get thrown through the bumpers.

The Mortgage Market View…

READY OR NOT…

Emergencies are never planned, but can happen in a heartbeat. Ever had a blackout at your home…and as you waited for the power to come back on, started to wonder what would happen if the minutes turned into hours or days? Would you and your family be prepared? The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) wants to make sure you are, and has identified September as National Preparedness Month. An emergency situation could be an earthquake, hurricane, potential terrorist threat, or even just that blackout.

Hopefully you will never be faced with an emergency situation of your own, but if you are, having an emergency kit will help ensure that you and your loved ones will have the bare necessities such as food, water, and items to keep you warm. And determining all the right items for each member of your family, pets, and those with special needs could normally be a very grueling process. But the DHS has made this process very simple.

To help you get started preparing your emergency kit, The Department of Homeland Security has developed a user friendly website that allows you to download and print all of the items that you will need to gather. Visit the DHS Emergency Kit site, and you can get a quick list of the basics, such as water, food, radio, flashlight and batteries – including a printable list of the quantities and types that should be purchased, based on your families needs. There’s also valuable information on “Unique Family Needs” which includes items for infants, pets, and those with special needs.

So take a few minutes to visit the site, and forward this article on to your friends, family members, and colleagues…or better yet, prepare a starter kit for them as a gift. When the power snaps off unexpectedly…or worse…don’t be caught unprepared.

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

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“CALM CONTINUETH NOT LONG WITHOUT A STORM”…And these wise words dating back to 1576 sure still hold true today. Bond prices and home loan rates have been absolutely flat for the past seven trading days. Traders have not had much in the way of economic news to chew on lately, and seasonably lower volume has added to the sluggish market activity. But this quiet period could just be the calm before the storm, as an action packed economic calendar is due to get some movement stirring over the next week.

Last week did bring some news from the housing sector, in the form of New and Existing Home Sales numbers for July…and it looks like the housing market is behaving just like Fed Chairman Bernanke predicted, with an “orderly slowdown”. The number of both New and Existing homes sold came in slightly lower than expectations, and the number of month’s inventory or supply available of each rose as well. But across the board, home prices are still up over the past year…that’s good news. And here’s an interesting point – the median home price in the US is now $230,000. How does that compare to your own market?

AND SPEAKING OF STORMS, IF YOU’VE EVER BEEN THROUGH A DIVORCE OR KNOW SOMEONE WHO HAS…YOU KNOW THAT IT’S RARELY SMOOTH SAILIING DURING THE PROCESS OF MAKING TOUGH FINANCIAL DECISIONS. BUT THERE IS A VERY COMMON DECISION MADE THAT CAN UNKNOWINGLY COST A BUNDLE…DON’T MISS THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW.

Forecast for the Week

So what’s the forecast for the week ahead that could cause some stormy seas for home loan rates? A big blast of economic news is on the horizon, including the “Meeting Minutes” or commentary from the last Fed Meeting, Consumer Confidence, 2nd Quarter GDP, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), the Institute of Supply Management (ISM), Consumer Sentiment and the “big boy”…the monthly Jobs Report. And whirling around in the mix is the seasons first potential hurricane headed towards the Gulf of Mexico…”Ernesto” is on the way. If the hurricane does develop, it could disrupt supply to an already jittery oil market. This would lead to higher oil prices, and more inflationary pressures…not good for Bond prices or home loan rates.

But technical factors will now give up the helm, and take a back seat to the important upcoming news events. Because Bond prices and home loan rates tend to benefit from weak economic news, and vice versa, worsen on positive economic news…this gives us some hints as to which way the wind might blow when the news starts hitting. But because Bonds would still need to power through the tough technical ceiling overhead to bring some improvement to home loan rates – it will take some dismal news indeed to see significant change for the better in rates.

The Mortgage Market View…

LOVE AND MARRIAGE, LOVE AND MARRIAGE, GO TOGETHER LIKE…Well, you know the song. But more than 50% of marriages end in divorce, and the lyrics quickly change from “love and marriage” to “alimony and child support.” Most people know their alimony payments are tax deductible and most also know alimony received is taxable income. But some innocent and seemingly harmless changes in the way alimony is paid can wipe out the deduction and make receipt of it tax free. And in an already emotional environment, more misunderstandings and legal battles are less than welcome.

According to the IRS, alimony can be claimed as a deduction in the year paid if the payment is made in cash. That’s the key point – it has to be paid in cash or by check. If it is used as part of a buyout or trade for personal items, furnishings or home equity, the deduction is disallowed. This can be a major issue, especially where home equity buyouts are concerned.

Picture a divorce situation where, after a legal battle, it is determined one spouse is obligated to pay the other alimony. And because the legal settlement took some time to reach, there is back alimony owed by Spouse A to Spouse B of $20,000. Additionally, Spouse A is leaving the marital home but has the right to half the equity in the home, which comes to $20,000 for their share of the home equity.

So…in the interest of keeping things simple and not having to take out loans or sell the marital home, the parties agree to trade the $20,000 owed to Spouse A in home equity for the $20,000 owed to Spouse B for back alimony. While this may appear to be a fair and reasonable way to settle the issue, it does not meet the IRS requirement for alimony to be paid in cash in order for it to be tax deductible. This issue is surprisingly common, and just recently the IRS Tax Court disallowed an ex-husband’s deduction for alimony (2006-122 Rocke Richard LaBozetta, Petitioner v. Commissioner of Internal Revenue, Respondent) because it was a trade of equity for back alimony and not paid in cash. Had the ex-husband known this prior to the settlement, he may have structured the settlement agreement differently to take advantage of the tax deduction.

Again, this could be a very common mistake for many individuals and could be a very costly mistake when counting on an extra tax deduction. It is important to take the time to meet with divorce and tax professionals that can help you make the correct financial decisions. If you need or know of someone who needs a referral for a tax or divorce professional, please contact me and I will be happy to recommend either to you.
The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar

Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

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Undertaking CeMAP training must be deemed an investment in future, as being in the mortgage trade can be a profitable profession choice for people. Yet if you don’t think to turn into a mortgage consultant but are planning a livelihood in the business, it will be hard to get into the industry with no CeMAP training. Those who are fascinated in making a career in this business or those who desire to modify careers consequently take the initial step of enrolling for this training.

A CeMAP aptitude is necessary in becoming a mortgage counselor. An individual who do not clear these exams can not turn into a mortgage counselor, proffering suggestion concerning mortgage packages or advising a lender. The qualification of this training augment a individual’s capability to get employed not just in the finance business but also in other business that necessitate a working understanding of mortgages.

A high-quality CeMAP training not only gets an individual prepared for the exams but also train him for the confronting and satisfying world of the finance industry. Corporations that proffer complete training guide a person to face the actual obstacles concerned in functioning as a mortgage counselor. These courses provide learners with information concerning the various types of mortgages, analyzing contract and others. High-quality classes will also proffer students the top practical information of the profession and the business.

The teaching plan will educate a learner the differentiation between mortgages, the fluctuations in interest rates and what these dissimilarities signify for the monetary existence of a client. These training courses will assist an individual to study about the maintaining of the mortgages and others. It will also educate a learner how to enlighten finance details that consumers can easily recognize.

Undertaking this training will assure that a person can proffer important financial guidance to customers. Apart from this ensure that a person gets into a profitable profession, the training is intended to expertise the finance industry with counselors presenting sound guidance to customers.

There are various kinds of CeMAP training accessible for those fascinated in receiving this qualification. The main familiar type of training is the classroom-based teaching and the home based education course. Every training course has its individual benefits and the selection is mainly dependent on the learner’s requirements. The home learning training includes guidance materials that can be utilized at house for instance audio CDs, books, self-test instruction manual, and videos. These syllabuses generally engage remote sustain from professors through email, web chat etc… The classroom-based category of guidance comprises attending usual classes. A benefit to this kind of set-up is that you can converse lessons with people in your class and you can instantly make clear puzzling theory and ideas.

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